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发现
- 去找1消费者支出会对股市走势做出反应，首当其冲的是信用卡支出激增.
- 去找2The spending response to stock market movements is stronger for customers identified as male investors than for non-investor men and for women.
- 去找3Flows into investment accounts are notably sensitive to changes in the stock market—a 10% rise in stocks translates to a short-term increase in the magnitude of transfers of over 10% for both men and women—显示出一种追逐回报的模式.
- 去找4新冠疫情对经济的冲击, 哪些因素严重抑制了消费者支出, 导致转入投资账户的资金大幅增加, 尤其是对男人来说.
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2021年1月
这是12bet官方研究所的报告, 我们分析了细粒度的行政零售银行数据，以探索美国银行与零售银行之间的关系.S. 股票市场和消费者行为，特别是消费和投资. Our research provides a historical perspective that can help policymakers understand how market fluctuations may be transmitted to the real economy over relatively short time horizons. This report documents a correlation between credit card spending and stock returns that plays out over the course of just a few months. 这种关系似乎是由特定类型的活动不成比例地驱动的, 信用卡消费的暂时飙升与投资者身份或性别有关.
除了消费模式，我们还研究了投资账户的零售流量. These transfers suggest "returns chasing" behavior; they track lagged stock market changes with an R-squared of over 20%. 总而言之, 在支出和投资方面都可以看到顺周期行为, 不同性别和财富指标的影响程度也不同. 具体地说, 在我们的例子中, 男性和投资者的信用卡消费对股票的反应比女性和非投资者的反应更灵敏. 关于投资流动, gender differences were smaller; the sensitivity of male investment flows to market returns was only modestly above the estimate for women. 我们的数据涵盖了大衰退之后的大部分时间，从2012年到2020年中期. 重要的是, 我们将covid - 19危机与其他样本分开, 为了防止这种独特冲击的异常值影响结果. This perspective can help policymakers understand how dynamics play out within a business cycle and illuminate tradeoffs associated with short-term “management” of the cycle through markets. 因为我们的样本主要局限于一次经济扩张, we study separately how individuals’ spending and investment flows played out during the COVID shock to illustrate similarities and contrasts with the dynamics observed in the preceding years. 分析可以总结为以下四个发现:
找到一个: 消费者支出会对股市走势做出反应，首当其冲的是信用卡支出激增.
在我们的信用卡样本中, 股票价格上涨10%，平均支出增长不到1%. 效果稍小，为0.8%, 在支出变化分布的中心, while the right tail of that distribution—characterized by spending increases of double or triple a person’s steady-state spending rate—is about two times as sensitive. 这种关系的时间跨度相对较短, 股市领先不到4个月.在上述期间内, 这种关系并不存在于支票账户支出或个人劳动收入的变化中, suggesting that consumer 信用可获得性 or the state of households’ liquid assets may play a role in mediating the relationship between stocks and the economy.
发现二: The spending response to stock market movements is stronger for customers identified as male investors than for non-investor men and for women.
跟随股市变化, 男性投资者支出分布的中位数比女性非投资者的变化幅度大10%左右, 但在第95百分位，这一差距扩大到两倍左右. The higher sensitivity for male investors is consistent with a wealth effect interpretation of the stock market-spending correlation, 尽管劳动力市场的性别差异可能也在起作用. Heterogeneity in our estimates implies that the short-term connection between the stock market and households is amplified by large changes from narrow segments and is less broad-based than suggested by aggregate spending. 像这样, 宏观金融关系随着经济结构的变化而变化, 包括不平等, 信用可获得性, 偏好的转变.
发现三: Flows into investment accounts are notably sensitive to changes in the stock market—a 10% rise in stocks translates to a short-term increase in the magnitude of transfers of over 10% for both men and women—显示出一种追逐回报的模式.
发现四: 新冠疫情对经济的冲击, 哪些因素严重抑制了消费者支出, 导致转入投资账户的资金大幅增加, 尤其是对男人来说.
影响
Our findings imply that policies seeking to exert control over business cycles via the stock market may be successful over short time horizons. 然而, 股市上涨与信用卡消费“挥霍”和资金流入投资经纪账户有关, suggesting that stimulus aimed at supporting asset prices can come with costs in the form of households’ financial vulnerability. 如果股票价格的上涨没有伴随着劳动力市场的改善, 在信用卡支出或股市敞口方面过度扩张的家庭将面临风险. More research should be done to fully understand how 信用可获得性 and liquid assets may influence the breadth and intensity of households’ responses to market movements. 最后, heterogeneity in response to stocks across gender and investor status suggest that macro-financial linkages are likely to change over time, 不断加剧的不平等可能会缩小对金融市场变化做出直接反应的人群.
